How to check the market size?The calculation method and the points after the survey are easy to understand

table of contents

1. What is the market size?
2. How to investigate the market size
   1. Investigate from materials issued by government agencies
   2. Investigate from materials issued by industry groups
   3. Purchase purchasing data from a research company and investigate
   4. Investigate from the market trend of research companies
3. How to calculate the market size
   1. Calculate from a company sales and share
   2. Calculate with Fermi estimation
4. After understanding the market size
5. Understand the market size and operate a strategic business

What is the market size?

　"Market size" refers to the amount traded in a certain business field and the amount sold in a certain period of time.To put it simply, it is a total sale of the entire industry.

　The market size is basic information to estimate how much sales can be expected when launching a new business.

　By looking at changes in the market size, you can see if the demand for the entire industry is growing or shrinking.

　If the market size is expanding, it will be clear that demand in the field is growing in the field, so it is possible to further increase investment and consider new products.

　Conversely, if the market size is shrinking, if you continue the same business method as in the past, it is expected that your sales will decrease, so you can consider and prepare measures as soon as possible.Yes.

　Also, for example, suppose your sales have been strong, and at the same time, the market size has grown significantly.In such a case, just because sales are growing does not necessarily mean that the competitive advantage of our products is high.

　When comparing the market growth rate and the growth rate of your company's sales, the market size will decrease if the market size is larger.Even if you are doing well, you may need to look back on your business strategy.

　In this way, the market size is an important information for considering future actions in business.

How to investigate the market size

　Before you start to find out, you need to define the "market range" that you want to clarify the scale.

　For example, in order to widely consider the development of our company in the future, there are cases where the market size of the "healthcare industry" may be investigated, and specific products such as "Supplements" to consider specific new products.Sometimes we check within the range of.

　Think about the right market range when your company thinks about your strategy.

　There are several ways to find out the market size.The following four are typical.

1. Investigate from materials issued by government agencies
2. Investigate from materials issued by industry groups
3. Purchase purchasing data from a research company and investigate
4. Investigate from the market trend of research companies

　I will explain in order.

Investigate from materials issued by government agencies

　Some administrative organizations calculate the market size by investigating and hearing from businesses.The statistical surveys by those governments are published on the website.

　For example, if you look at [Statistics] from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry's website, you will find a list of published survey results.The "Industrial Statistics Survey" in it covers many market size in the industrial field.

　The Ministry of Finance has conducted a “Corporate Corporate Statistics Survey”, which is the market size.In the "Information and Communication White Paper" issued by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the market size related to IT is published as data.

　As described above, the ministries are handled depending on the business field, but if you are unknown where to look, you can follow the website, which is the general counter of the government statistics called e-STAT.

Investigate from materials issued by industry groups

　Industries with a reasonable scale have industry groups, which are general incorporated associations, and may disclose related information for free.In many cases, it will be a ship -based number from the manufacturer.

　There is no end to the example, but for example, the following organizations have published the market size.

　Even if there is no direct organization that handles the product field you want to know, it may be a good idea to find information from related industry organizations, so it is a good idea to find out.

Purchase purchasing data from a research company and investigate

　Some research companies have collected information on when, where, where, and how much, and are calculated by expanding the market size based on the data.

　By purchasing it, you can get reliable market size for each product item.You can also follow the monthly changes, and analyze each brand for each sales channel.

　The main companies that sell purchasing data include:The cost varies depending on the contract range and period.

　These companies may also disclose some of the market size on the website for free.

Investigate from the market trend of research companies

　There is also a method of purchasing a paid booklet published by collecting various industries, including market size, by market research companies (some of them are sometimes released for free in press releases).

　Research companies are good at grasping market size and market trends:

　If you do not sell information in the field you want to know, you can ask these companies to check them for a fee.It is not always possible to investigate all industries, so it is a good idea to consult first.

How to calculate the market size

　If there is no industry group or if there is no data provided on the scale you want to know, there is a way to calculate it yourself.The following two mainly:

1. Calculate from a company sales and share
2. Calculate with Fermi estimation

　Here, let's introduce in detail in order.

Calculate from a company sales and share

　If you know the approximate share configuration in the industry you want to know, you may be able to calculate with simple calculations.

　Select one company in the industry and see shareholder communication and financial information from the website.If the sales amount for each business field is posted, it can be calculated by the following formula.

　For example, if Company A share 30 % and Company A's field of sales is 12 billion, the market size can be calculated as follows.

　The precautions when calculating in this way is to check how much the sales amount published by Company A include.

　In some cases, only those that combine the sales amount in other fields are also announced, so we recommend that you choose a company specializing in the business field if possible.

　Also, even if the share of each company is not published, information may be public in economic magazines, etc. in the form of "the top three companies account for 〇 %".

　In that case, the total sales of the top three companies can be calculated by applying the same formula as above.

Calculate with Fermi estimation

　Fermi estimation refers to a logical calculation based on some clues without actually measuring or conducting a careful survey, and infusing the amount roughly.

　The name sounds a bit difficult, but it is not difficult if you understand it.

　There is no fixed method for Fermi estimation, and it is up to the analysts to calculate on what path to calculate.Think of it as an estimate, but to understand the scale of the estimate.

　There are several common methods when calculating the market size by Fermi estimation.

消費量をベースに算出する

　It is based on how many people consume the amount, and is often used in food and general consumer goods.

　At that time, those that are purchased and used by individuals such as sweets and cosmetics are based on the population, the number of households, such as TV and cars, is based on the number of households, and the number of businesses targeted for BtoB.I will calculate it.

　For example, if you try to examine the annual consumption of products in a certain area, the formula is as follows.

　If you want to know the market size amount, replace the "per consumption per product" in the above formula and calculate it.

　Let's calculate the case of calculating the annual market size of a drinking category as an example.Assuming that the specific information was as follows.

　The annual consumption (ML) is applied to the calculation formula

　Will be.

　The annual market size is

　is.

　The idea of purchasing for each household is the same, but if you do not buy a new home appliances every year, and use it for years, you need to divide it by the useful life per product.

　We recommend that you use the accurate data of the census published by the Statistics Bureau for population and households.The results of the census are published here (https://www.stat.go.jp/index.html).

　If you do not know the usage rate and the number of holdings per household, it may be announced by research companies, industry groups, and companies, so it is a good idea to search and check it out.

　If you do not find data, you can make up for predictions based on similar categories and related products, or guess from the percentage of people around you who use the product.

　Think of the market size calculated in this way as an estimated estimate.

販売量をベースに算出する

　一方で、全く違う観点から算出することができる場合もあります。消費量ではなく「どのくらい売られているか」という方面から算出する方法is.

　商品を扱っている販売店がどのくらいあって、1店舗あたり1年間でどのくらい売るのかをベースに計算します。算出の式は以下Will be.

その他

　Depending on the way of thinking, there are variations.

　For example, if you want to know the market size of the "mold for creating parts used in certain products" in the business of BtoB, the final product of the product is used per product.We will calculate using numbers such as numbers and how many parts can be made in one type.

　このように、手に入る情報を手掛かりにして、論理的に、およその規模感を計算するのがフェルミ推定is.どの方法が最適かはケースによって違いますが、計算の仕方で大きく変わってきてしまう場合もあります。

　If it is possible to try in multiple methods, try both and verify that it will be a close value, so please try it.

フェルミ推定で困ったときの裏技

　Here, I would like to introduce one of the tricks that researchers teach.

　上記のように推定しようと思っても、ある商品の使用量について検討がつかない、あるいは自信がないという場合もあるかもしれません。そんな時は自分や周りの人を実験台にして測ってみるのも一つの方法is.

　In the case of actual measurement, it is less likely to cause errors by measuring over a certain period of time, rather than measuring only one usage.

　As a concrete method, you purchase a certain product, measure the weight at that point with the container, use it normally for about a week, and then measure the same weight again.Since the amount decreased during that period is used, the annual usage is estimated based on that.

　For example, suppose the following results were obtained.

　Then the average usage per person per person is

　Will be.年間では52週をかけて1040g程度を使用することが推定されます。

　Assuming that many products in this category are sold in 80g, the annual consumption per person can be estimated to be 1040g ÷ 80g = 13.

　Even with a new one, there may be delicate individual differences in the weight, so it is necessary to measure all in advance.In any case, the number of specimals is small, so it will be a reference value, but please try it if you are in trouble because there is no clue.

After understanding the market size

　Once the market size is examined, we recommend that you follow the structure of the industry.

　Just because the market size is large, I don't know if it's an attractive market for business.Many companies are already in fierce competition and may be a market that makes it difficult to make a profit.

　In addition, raw material manufacturers or dealers may have a strong power and may be an industry that cannot be turned around.Furthermore, in terms of social conditions and political conditions, the market may shrink or regulate in the future.

　It is a good idea to take out the threats of this external environment and think about a major policy for the company to survive.

　If you recommend marketing strategies such as market segmentation and target selection without it, you may be scooped up your feet at the fundamental place.

Understand the market size and operate a strategic business

　自社が関わる事業の市場規模を正しく知ることは、事業戦略の第一歩is.記事で紹介した方法を参考に、市場理解に役立てていただければ幸いis.