The impact does not end even after the corona of the wood shock and its cause!?

"Wood shock" is a soaring timber price due to the serious wood shortage in 2021.What caused the wood shock?How long will the impact last?I would like to summarize the latest trends for those who are considering buying a house, as well as investors who are paying attention to the Japanese economy.Despite the trends in the demand for wood, which is calm overseas, we will explain why supply is still in Japan, along with the status of domestic forestry.

table of contents

1. 1.What is wood shock?
2. 2.What is the cause of the wood shock?
3. 3.Domestic impact of wood shock
4. 4.Three points that people who want to buy a custom house after the wood shock should be aware of
5. 5.When will the wood shock end?Future outlook
6. Summary: Wood shock starts with the recovery of demand in the United States and China.Domestic economies are expected to continue to be affected

1.What is wood shock?

（画像=PIXTA）

The wood shock has severely hit not only to our housing buyers, but also to the construction industry, such as housing -related manufacturers.First, I will explain the outline of the wood shock and the reason specific to Japan where the wood shock occurred.

1.1.Wood shock is a rising wood price

Wood shock is a soaring timber price due to global wood shortage in 2021.With the increase in housing demand, wood shocks occurred, causing confusion on the market and the economy as a whole.The name of the wood shock was given after the oil crisis (oil crisis) that occurred in the 1970s.

1.2.Japan's circumstances that rely on importing wood in the background of the wood shock

The background of the wood shock in Japan has a low wood self -sufficiency rate.Japan's timber self -sufficiency is about 40 %, and 60 % rely on imported wood.Under these circumstances, the demand for residential wood has soared worldwide and the price rises, so Japan, which rely on imports, was particularly due to severe wood shortage and rising wood prices.

▽ Changes in wood supply and timber self -sufficiency rate

画像引用：林野庁「令和2年木材需給表」参考資料 木材需給の構成等（PDF）

Since 2002, it can be seen that although the domestic timber self -sufficiency rate is rising due to the efforts of local governments, mainly in the Forestry Agency, it is about 40 % as a whole, and most of the demand relies on imported materials.Forestry, it takes decades from planting to logging, as well as labor shortages, and Japanese forestry has a structural problem.Therefore, the sudden recovery of the timber self -sufficiency cannot be expected, and it can be said that it is difficult.

2.What is the cause of the wood shock?

Why was the demand for residential wood soared worldwide in the first place?Let's take a closer look at the cause of the wood shock.

2.1.Causes of wood shock 1: Increased housing purchase and renovation in the United States

The beginning of the wood shock was the global spread of the new Coronavirus.In 2020, housing demand increased rapidly in the United States and China due to the increase in remote work and the demand for lockdown and its release.The government has implemented monetary easing and significantly lower mortgage rates has also spurred housing purchases and increased demand for renovation.

According to a report by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the number of US housing construction permit in the United States is about 1 in July 2020..3 times, about 1 in January 2021.It was 6 times.Although it decreased slightly, 1 from February to May 2021.4 to 1.It has been five times.

▽ Number of housing construction permit in the United States

画像引用：経済産業省「新型コロナがもたらす供給制約 ； ウッドショックの影響」

With the increase in housing demand, wood prices rose.The rising price of Japanese timber prices is particularly serious, and the import price of timber used in housing architecture, etc., has become remarkable since 2021, and in May based on 2015..It has risen to four times.

▽ Changes in Japanese timber price (change comparison as 2015 = 100)

画像引用：経済産業省「新型コロナがもたらす供給制約 ； ウッドショックの影響」

2.2.Causes of wood shock 2: Complex factors such as increased demand in China

In addition to the increase in US housing demand, wood shocks were caused by complex factors.

One of the reasons for the wood shock is the increase in the world's largest population of timber.In China, the consumption of industrial logs is increasing due to economic growth.However, production in China has been flat, and demand for imported wood has increased rapidly.The import volume of industry Maruta is about 1 from 2010 to 2019..It has increased 7 times.It is thought that China has raised global wood demand because it accounts for 44 % of the world's coniferous trees imported.

▽ Changes in the consumption of industrial logs and imports and domestic production in China

画像引用：林野庁「中国における木材貿易の動向」（PDF）

In addition, the consumption of lumber is increasing at a speed that is more than industrially overto.From 2010 to 2019, the consumption of lumber is about 2.5 times, the import amount is 2 out of the consumption.It is four times.

▽ Consumption of materials in China

画像引用：林野庁「中国における木材貿易の動向」（PDF）

The Chinese economy has recovered quickly since the Corona Shock, and the growth of wood in China may have affected the wood shock.

In addition, the demand for nesting has increased the number of Internet shopping globally, causing a shortage of containers.Looking at the container fare on the US route (Yokohama → Los Angeles), it can be seen that it has soared around July 2020.

In addition, the congestion of loading and unloading was difficult, making it difficult to import wood, accelerating wood shocks in Japan.

▽ Container fare travel on US routes (Yokohama → Los Angeles)

画像引用：国土交通省「コンテナ不足問題に関する政府における取組」（PDF）

2.3.Impact on sales and purchases of newly built detached houses

Wood shock, which emits the end of the United States and spreads around the world due to complex factors.In Japan, which relies on the import of wood, it has influenced the sales and purchase of newly built detached houses.

The newly built -in detached housing trading business in Japan fell once in April 2020, when an emergency declaration was issued, but it has recovered significantly in August 2020 and has steadily fluctuated.Looking at the whole 2020, it was higher than the previous year.

However, since August 2020, the index of the new detached house trading business has declined significantly due to the rise in imported materials, and has not recovered even in 2021.

▽ Changes in the new detached house housing trading index

画像引用：経済産業省「新型コロナがもたらす供給制約：ウッドショックの影響」

Housing buyers were also seriously influenced.

Imported wood is often used in pillars and beams of wooden houses.Domestic wood is weaker than American wood and European wood, and is not suitable for pillars and beams.When using domestic wood, it is necessary to make the pillars and beams thicker and the design itself must be reviewed.A shortage of imported wood cannot immediately switch to domestic wood.

For these reasons, many housing buyers were in trouble, such as delays in construction and costing costs.

The impact of the wood shock is not limited to the house.One furniture store has been working to raise furniture using high -quality wood, such as walnut from North America, since July 2021.

2.4.The United States, where prices are soaring, is still high in Japan

The starting point of the wood shock was the increase in housing demand in the United States.Japan, which had a low timber self -sufficiency rate and relied on imported materials, received a pair.However, in the United States, the rising wood price is gradually showing.

Looking at the changes in coniferous materials comprehensive prices published by U.S. industry newspapers, the price of coniferous materials in North America rose after April 2020, and the maximum value of $ 1,514 in the third week of May 2021.Recorded.After that, it has fallen, and at the end of July 2021, it settled down to the same level as May 2020 before the wood shock.

However, according to the Forestry Agency's "Imported Wood Situation (December 2021)", the average import unit price of glued lumber and plywood for the production and structure has been high as of October 2021.Many of the industry is concerned that the situation will continue in the future.

▽ Changes in the average unit price imported

画像引用：林野庁　木材輸入の状況について（2021年10月実績）（PDF）

3.Domestic impact of wood shock

Next, we will explain the effects of Wood Shocks in Japan and the potential problems of Japanese forestry.

3.1.Delayed construction of wood is delayed

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism investigated the effects of wood shocks for small and medium -sized construction shops.According to a survey at the end of September 2021, 46 % of the respondents said that the construction had been delayed in the past and present as of September.Many small and medium -sized construction shops have a delay in construction, indicating that housing buyers have also been impacted.

▽ “Delayed construction” survey for small and medium -sized construction shops

画像引用：国土交通省「中小工務店における木材の供給遅延の影響について（9月末調査実施）」（PDF）

On the other hand, the report that "the delay in wood has occurred" was 95 % in July 2021, but 76 % in September, indicating that the shortage was gradually being resolved.

3.2.Release of Japanese issues that relies on wood to highlight again

He said again that the direct cause of Wood Shock was the rapid increase in US housing demand.However, as a background of the problem, in addition to the increase in the demand for global timbering, mainly in China, domestic forestry has declined and relying on imported materials.It seems that the wood shock has become apparent as a problem with Japanese wood self -sufficiency as a problem.

Japan's timber self -sufficiency rate began to fall around 1960, 18 in 2002..It became 8 %.It relies on imports for more than 80 % of wood used in Japan.As a result, the government set a goal to raise the timber self -sufficiency rate.Due to the support of the government, the timber self -sufficiency has continued to rise for the last 10 years.

▽ Changes in wood supply and timber self -sufficiency rate

画像引用：林野庁「令和2年木材需給表」参考資料 木材需給の構成等（PDF）

Nevertheless, the wooden self -sufficiency rate in 2020 published by the Forestry Agency is 41..It is 8 %, and it is still relying on imports of 60 %.

In addition, comparing 2019 and 2020, it can be seen that domestic production of non -building materials such as fuel is increasing.This is because biomass power generation has attracted attention and demand for wood as fuel material has increased.Note that even though the timber self -sufficiency rate is rising, domestic production of building materials is not increasing.

3.3.Reasons why it is difficult to increase production of domestic wood

There are some voices seeking shifts to domestic wood by wood shock.However, domestic forest industry has a structural problem and is reluctant to increase production.

Forests in Japan were cut down at the speed where recovery could not catch up during the war and after the war.It takes several decades to start planting and ship wood.The felled forests were not immediately regenerated, and as a result, forestry in Japan continued to decline.

Restoring forests are required to regenerate the forest, but the rebuilt forests cost a lot, and the cost of selling the cut wood cannot be covered at all.

Based on this situation, the government and local governments are conducting various subsidies related to forests and forestry.The subsidy business will provide subsidies to organizations and individuals that meet the conditions, using taxes as a financial resource.There are a wide range of subsidies, such as planting, mowing, thinning, thinning, wood distribution, and base maintenance, and in some cases the national and local governments assist alone, and in some cases they are jointly assisted.

▽ Image of subsidy project in forestry

画像引用：全国林業改良普及協会「補助事業・補助金とは」

The auxiliary rate depends on the business content, but it may be aid for about 70 % of the maximum actual cost.

However, even if about 70 % of them are subsidized, the profit of subtracting the reduction of the cut wood will be insignificant.Introducing a work system, such as efficiency, may increase profits if cost can be reduced, but you may be worried about capital investment.

Just because the demand has increased, there is almost no umami to increase production until the risk is taken.It can be said that the fact that forest owners are reluctant to increase production is a reasonable story.

In the first place, domestic wood has the task of being inferior to American and Europe in terms of strength.Even if the production is increased, if the wood shock fits and the imported wood comes to the market again, it may be excessive.Due to such concerns, domestic businesses are still steadily increasing production.

3.4.Impact on low -cost housing and built -in housing

Among the housing manufacturers, the company that sells low -cost houses and built -for -sale houses, especially the wood shock.In low -cost housing and built -for -sale houses, it is important to reduce the price of selling prices, and have relyed on cheap imported wood.The high dependence on imported wood has made the impact of the wood shock remarkable.

Just because the purchase price has risen does not necessarily mean that the selling price can be raised immediately as long as it is exposed to price competition.Many companies should have been forced to make a harsh management decision.

If the price of imported wood does not decrease, the price of low -cost housing and built -for -sale housing may rise in the future.Housing purchasers must carefully determine the time of buying.

4.Three points that people who want to buy a custom house after the wood shock should be aware of

Wood shocks in Japan have a significant impact on low -cost housing and built -for -sale houses, but no exception in custom -built houses.If you are considering buying a custom -built house in the future, you may be worried about what will happen to building a house under the impact of wood shock that has not yet converged.Next, I will explain the three points that people who want to build their own home in custom -built houses should be careful.

4.1.Delay of construction due to delay in material procurement

Wood shocks have been difficult to secure materials, and the construction has been delayed.If you want to build your own home according to the time of your child's entrance, I would like to move early and check the start of construction, completion, and the delay of construction.

Custom -built houses are often decided, such as floor plans, exterior equipment, and interior equipment, and some meetings are prolonged and the start of construction is delayed.It is important not to create a cause to delay the start of construction, at least for controllable elements other than the procurement of materials.

4.2.Over budget due to soaring timber prices

In custom -built houses, we decide the floor plan and specifications, and then make an estimate.As a result, soaring wood prices directly affects the housing purchase price.The effects of the wood shock may exceed the budget that was originally assumed.If the budget is over, you may have to give up the size and equipment specifications.

It is said that the burden due to soaring prices of wood is said to be about a few percent of the housing price, but the impact on the price depends on how much wood is used.One of the ways to convey the desired layout and interior to the housing manufacturer, have the estimates are re -estimated, or have them make suggestions to change the wood to another material, and consult about the impact on the housing price.right.

Please note that if you change the wood to another material, it may be changed at the start of construction and completion.In addition, not only wood but also steel materials and plywood are increasing one after another, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price of materials other than wood.

4.3.The situation varies depending on the house maker

The degree of the impact of the wood shock varies depending on the dependence on the imported wood, so the situation differs for each housing manufacturer.If you have a housing manufacturer you want, we would like to consult individually to hear the status of materials procurement, the delay of construction, and the estimation of cost increase.

5.When will the wood shock end?Future outlook

For housing purchasers and people working in housing manufacturers, when the wood shock ends is a matter of life and death.Next, I will explain the future outlook for wood shock.

5.1.It is highly opaque and is likely to last 2022

In the United States, the rise in coniferous timber making prices has begun to calm down, but in Japan, there is no prospect of when the wood shock will fit.

He explained that one of the factors of the wood shock was soaring fare due to a shortage of containers.As of December 2021, global container deficiency has not shown any signs that will fit at all, and the logistics network has been confused.In November 2021, the United Nations rose container fare by 2023 by 2023..He published a report that 6 % could be raised.

Although it is not possible to determine the future of wood shock, it is likely that wood prices will rise after 2022.On the contrary, it has been pointed out that the price of steel and plywood may be increased one after another, and the price of the entire building material may be high.Those who are considering buying a house are likely to be affected by the rise in other building materials such as steel.

5.2.If you want to buy a house, get the latest information and act

At the moment, there is no prospect of the wood shock.Due to the soaring timber prices, housing purchase prices may rise in a few million yen units.I want to consider buying a house carefully now.One option is to reconsider the time of the house itself, such as starting a house after the wood shock settles down.

If you want to buy a house, please refer to the information introduced in this article or actually contact a housing manufacturer to get the latest information.

Summary: Wood shock starts with the recovery of demand in the United States and China.Domestic economies are expected to continue to be affected

Wood shock is a soaring timber price due to global wood shortage in 2021.One of the causes was that the number of remote work in the United States and the significant decrease in mortgage interest rates has increased housing purchase and renovation, and the demand for wood has increased.There are also complex factors, such as increased wood demand in China and global container deficiency.

Although the price of wood in the United States is becoming normal, the rising container fare due to the shortage of container is expected to continue in Japan in 2022.Those who are considering purchasing a custom -built house may need to pay attention to the delay in construction, over budget, and differences in the situation for each house maker.

In addition, the housing market is related to various markets, and has a significant impact on the Japanese economy as a whole.In accordance with furniture and home appliances, accompanying consumption is also generated with housing purchase.Since housing architecture uses many materials and products such as wood and metal products, related industries are diverse and have a large economic effect.

In this way, the impact of wood shock is not limited to the housing market.I also want to pay attention to the impact on the Japanese economy as a whole.