Brokerage strategy: policy efforts are more clear, external shocks are becoming clearer

CITIC Securities (quote 600030, diagnostic stock): The policy force is more clear, and the external impact is becoming clearer

The positive goals of the policies of the two sessions are clear, and the trend of stabilizing growth is clear; the Russian-Ukrainian incident has accelerated inflation expectations, and it is expected that a turnaround will be seen within March. Resonate upward with growth.

On the one hand, from the perspective of the domestic economy and policies, we expect the overall economic data in the first two months to be stable, and the effect of stabilizing growth has initially appeared. The annual economic growth target of the two sessions is clear and clear. achieve the desired effect.

On the other hand, from the perspective of external shocks, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected the supply prospects and price expectations of a series of industrial products, accelerated the rise in commodity prices, and restricted the means of overseas central banks to control inflation, further pushing up inflation expectations. The clarity on the eventual direction of events and the rapid weakening of global demand could reverse current commodity price trends, and we expect the initial results of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to usher in March.

For the A shares themselves, the market liquidity has been relatively stable recently, and the pressure is significantly weaker than before and after the Spring Festival.

Huaan Securities (600909, diagnostic stock): Internal support is getting stronger, external constraints are getting weaker, balanced allocation, active participation

Continue to maintain a balanced allocation under the continuation of market fluctuations. In the short term, we are optimistic about the stable growth chain that has performed steadily recently, and continue to participate in the third stage of growth in the medium term. In the first week of March, the market accelerated its rotation before the two sessions. The cyclical style represented by coal, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery performed better, while the growth style retraced to a certain extent, and the stable growth chain remained relatively stable. Looking forward to the second week of March, although the economic goals announced at the two sessions over the weekend will help the market unify expectations, the Fed is approaching the interest rate meeting. It will continue, and it is recommended to continue to maintain a balanced configuration.

Overall, the configuration continues to revolve around three main lines and two major themes. Main line 1: Continue to participate in the third stage of growth. Specifically, we can pay attention to the main growth lines represented by dual carbon and semiconductors, as well as the defense industry, communications and computers under the growth and diffusion; main line 2: add stable growth chains with relatively stable short-term performance, focusing on building materials, building decoration, urban management Opportunities in new and old infrastructure fields such as power grid transformation and new power grid construction, as well as real estate and banks; Main Line 3: In terms of consumption, in the short term, continue to focus on service travel chains such as airports, tourism, catering, and leisure, as well as overall opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector; Opportunities related to dairy products, planting industry and chemical fertilizers with smoother prices; in terms of themes, continue to focus on investment opportunities related to the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.

Dongxing Securities (quote 601198, diagnostic stock): Cherish the short-term recovery window, and lay out the "new formulation" industry of the two sessions

From historical experience, the short-term boosting effect of the "two sessions" on the market is obvious. Statistics on the performance of A-shares after the two sessions since 2002 show that the Shanghai Composite Index has a 70% chance of rising one month after the two sessions; the ChiNext Index has a shorter-term impact, with a rise probability of 72% and 82% after the next week and the next two weeks, respectively. If it is during a period of overall decline in important economic data, the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index after the two sessions will have an overall rise (2008, 2014, 2015, 2018). However, if these periods are excluded, the probability of the market rising in the remaining samples is basically lower than 50%. It can be seen that in a period of worse economic fundamentals, the market is more sensitive to policy expectations, and the boosting effect of the Two Sessions on market sentiment is also more obvious. In the second half of 2021, the main economic data will decline in an all-round way. Even the latest PMI data are only mixed. At present, the fundamentals have not stabilized, the micro-liquidity environment of the stock market is poor, and the impact of Russia and Ukraine is under multiple hazes. Cherish the two sessions in the short term. A window period that drives market sentiment to pick up.

The short-term theme focuses on the key industries of the two sessions in 2022. By comparing the government work reports in 2022 and 2021, it is found that the newly mentioned industries include: consumer services (catering, accommodation, retail, tourism), specialization, specialization, and domestic service industries, and industries with increased marginal strength include the supply chain. , digital economy, home appliances, water conservancy projects, energy infrastructure, the Belt and Road Initiative, carbon neutrality (clean energy base).

Huatai Securities (quote 601688, diagnostic stock): focus on ten incremental expression industries

This year's government work report is highly consistent with the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year. Faced with the triple pressure of "shrinking demand, supply shock, and weakening expectations", the medium-to-high-speed growth on a high base reflects proactive actions to improve the effectiveness of fiscal policy and leverage monetary policy tools. "Dual function of total amount and structure". Continue the keynote of "steady growth" and "policy correction", pay attention to the two major drivers of infrastructure and consumption, coordinate energy consumption intensity targets, and effectively play the key role of investment. Industrial policy is deployed around manufacturing, digital economy and security development. Considering only the incremental information from this government work report, we recommend focusing on: raw materials, key components (machine tools, automobiles, etc.), 5G, smart cities, integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, large-scale wind and photovoltaic bases, power grids, water management and underground Policy-driven opportunities in industries such as pipe gallery and green smart home appliances.

Shenwan Hongyuan (market 000166, diagnostic stock): After the government work report of the two sessions, will the market have more confidence in stable growth?

Regarding the government work report, the question we are most concerned about is how to maintain stable growth and whether the market will be more confident. Objectively, from the government work report, the market does not see that the management has allocated "overwhelming resources" to stabilize growth; nor does it see that there are additional bottom-line arrangements for real estate and exports that are worried about the market. This determines that the short-term market cannot ferment optimistic expectations in advance based on the 5.5% GDP growth target. So, on the other hand, is it necessary to assert that stable growth is not enough like some investors do? We don't think it's appropriate either. The 2022 budget is already what 2019 will look like, so it’s not hard work! More importantly, the government work report provides some ideas to help us figure out where the resources for steady growth come from. This is the basis for thinking and tracking the upside risks of A-shares.

The market may need support beyond the government work report to dispel concerns about real estate and exports. Although the fiscal force is like 2019, the short-term cannot make the market more optimistic about stable growth. After the two sessions, the resistance to the deduction of the "restless logic" of "poor economy and wider policy" in the stable growth sector has increased, the importance of data verification has increased, and the difficulty of stock operations has increased. In the medium term, we will mainly focus on the source of economic upside risks. The idea of ​​stabilizing growth in 2022 is basically clear: borrowing resources from the future (the catalyst for the early use of fiscal expenditure space in 2023 may be in the second half of the year), leveraging social leverage (only social financing credit can be tracked), Improve policy execution (only follow-up follow-up research), and keep research tracking. In the industry, the focus is on the digital economy, pipeline corridors and energy bases in infrastructure, and consumer support for new energy vehicles is still the starting point. Under the pressure of cost reduction, domestic demand and domestic supply of bulk, electricity, and Internet platforms will still face greater policy resistance.

CITIC Construction Investment (quote 601066, diagnostic stock): waiting for the conflict to ease, preparing for the first quarterly report

Once the conflict between Russia and Ukraine eases, the next time node worth looking forward to or the upcoming quarterly report of A shares. In the past 15 years, the market performance before and after the disclosure period of the first quarter report has been relatively strong. At the same time, there is a certain positive correlation between the growth rate of the industry's first quarter report and the rise and fall in the first quarter report. Looking forward to the first quarterly report market that may arrive in the middle and late March, we believe that we should focus on winning by quality, and prefer sub-sectors with high prosperity and expected to exceed expectations. Focus:

1) Some of the cyclical products whose prosperity has been raised;

2) The bank that took the lead in the first quarter in the stable growth sector;

3) In the growth sector, photovoltaic modules/IGBT and semiconductor materials/CXO/military upstream/diaphragm and power battery leader/gigabit broadband, etc., which still maintain a high prosperity in the first quarter and have no obvious damage to profitability;

4) Railways/thermal power, etc., whose performance was obviously damaged last year, are expected to recover in the first quarter.

Focus on industries: crude oil/aluminum/coal, real estate, military industry, banking, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, photovoltaic.

Guotai Junan (price 601211, diagnostic stock): After the sting, it still needs to be covered in spring

Judging from this government work report, positive signals have been released intensively. On the one hand, the expected confidence at the numerator end is raised, and on the other hand, the denominator end also alleviates the previous market worries.

1) The sharp sword of the stabilizing growth policy is unsheathed, and the expected confidence at the molecular end is lifted. Under the current short-term economic pressure, to achieve the 5.5% growth target, we must "climb over the hurdle" and require the cooperation of infrastructure, real estate, and consumption. Therefore, this policy has a clearer attitude towards stabilizing growth. The report proposes that "in the face of new downward pressure, we must place stable growth in a more prominent position" and "use reserve policy tools in a timely manner to ensure the smooth operation of the economy." In addition, this report proposes to "give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of aggregate and structure to provide stronger support for the real economy". Looking ahead, cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical macro-control policies will be further strengthened to provide strong support for stable economic growth. .

2) Prevent and defuse major risks, and alleviate early market worries. The statement on real estate in this report continued the tone of the previous Central Economic Work Conference, and at the same time did not mention issues related to real estate tax, so as to avoid disturbance to the demand side of residents, and pessimistic expectations for real estate were restored. In addition, the report also proposed to "establish a financial stability guarantee fund, and use market-oriented and legal methods to resolve hidden risks" to further alleviate the early market's concerns about real estate credit risks.

In addition to infrastructure, there is consumption. In 2022, from the perspective of the split of valuation and profit contribution, on the one hand, the liquidity expectation on the denominator side has already reached an inflection point, which makes the overall valuation side of the market not only will not have the basis for a comprehensive rise in the future, but will in fact continue to face negative contributions. . We believe that in addition to infrastructure construction, more attention should be paid to consumption investment opportunities. This report proposes to "promote residents' income through multiple channels, improve the income distribution system, and enhance consumption capacity". It also mentions green smart home appliances to the countryside and trade-in, etc. . Industry configuration: 1) Consumption: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (live pigs)/home appliances/social services; 2) Infrastructure: coal/steel/transportation/construction/chemical/machinery; 3) Finance: brokerage/bank; 4) Consumer electronics.

Haitong Securities (quote 600837, diagnostic stock): The market is expected to gradually strengthen and grow in a better style

The government work report put forward a growth target of about 5.5%, which means that the policy of stabilizing growth will continue to be promoted, and the effect has already been seen. The report takes into account the adjustment of structure and the protection of people's livelihood. Scientific and technological innovation is the key to adjustment of structure, and supporting the elderly and raising children is the focus of protecting people's livelihood. The market is expected to gradually become stronger and have a better growth style, such as photovoltaic wind power in the low-carbon economy and cloud computing data centers in the digital economy.

In the context of loose domestic policies, the market performance has been weak since the beginning of the year. We believe that the disturbance behind it mainly comes from overseas: First, the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations continued to increase at the end of last year and early this year. The market expects the number of Fed rate hikes in 2022 ( Calculated on a 25bp rate hike) from 2-3 times at the end of last year to a high of 7 times in February. It can be seen that the current market expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates are already very high. Under the influence of recent geopolitical factors, the market expects that the probability of raising interest rates by 50 bp in March has also declined marginally. On March 2, Fed Chairman Powell also made it clear at the congressional hearing. It expressed support for raising interest rates by 25bp in March, and the recent Fed rate hike may have been fully priced in by the market.

Second, since mid-January, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has gradually fermented, causing emotional disturbance to A shares. The impact of local conflicts on the market is often short-term, and the actual impact on the market is limited in the long run. For reference, in 2014, with the negotiation between Russia and Ukraine, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the market is expected to gradually disappear.

Based on the above, the negative impact of the two major disturbances has gradually weakened, and the market will eventually return to the logic of its own operation. The current government work report sets the GDP growth target for 22 years at about 5.5%. We expect that the domestic growth stabilization policy will continue to be implemented and the effect will gradually appear. This positive force is expected to gradually dominate. In addition, after reviewing the history, we found that the A-share spring market has never been absent in the past 20 years. During the period, the average maximum increase of the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite Index was 24% and 22% respectively. And in 10, 11, and 2016, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a January decline similar to the current market, but the index will rebound in the first quarter after these three declines. With the implementation of the stable growth policy and results, the market is expected to turn from weak to strong.

China Merchants Securities (Quote 600999, Diagnostics): What signals does the government work report reveal?

On the whole, this government work report is in line with expectations, and the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year is basically the same. Compared with the changes in the focus of work in 2020 and 2021.

The overall economic growth target is 5.5%, which is at the upper limit of market expectations, conveying a greater determination to stabilize growth, and investment is expected to play a major role; in terms of fiscal policy, the tone is positive, and the government expenditure budget has expanded, which has made a lot of efforts to expand effective investment. Arrangement; the monetary policy is "me-based", "flexible and appropriate", "reasonable and sufficient", and the keynote is basically the same as before; the real estate sector is less focused, insisting on housing housing and not speculation, and ensuring the housing needs of the masses; in terms of industrial policy, promoting For the digital transformation of the industry, for the first time, the “Ten-Year Plan for Implementing Basic Research”, “Three-Year Plan for Implementing the Reform of the Science and Technology System”, “Strengthening the National Strategic Science and Technology Power”, and “Implementing the Project of Maintaining and Stable Chain of Leading Enterprises” were put forward. Based on the signals revealed in the government work report, it is recommended to pay attention to the stable growth of the real estate infrastructure industry chain, new infrastructure fields such as the digital economy, and investment opportunities in high-end equipment, raw materials, new energy storage, photovoltaics, wind power and other sectors.